> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.aura.markets/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Markets Overview

> How Aura prediction markets work: yes and no shares, the dual order book, how markets are created, and how they resolve.

An Aura market is a question with a deadline and two sides. You buy shares in the
outcome you think is right, and if you are right, each share pays out \$1.

Everything else on this page is detail hanging off that sentence.

## Shares, prices, and probability

A market on "Will ALPH close above $5 on December 31?" has two share types, yes
and no. Exactly one of them will be worth $1 when the market resolves. The other
will be worth nothing.

Because the winning share pays $1, its price is a probability. A yes share
trading at $0.64 means the market collectively thinks there is a 64% chance.

<CardGroup cols={3}>
  <Card title="Buy at 0.64" icon="cart-shopping">
    You pay \$0.64 for a yes share.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Right" icon="circle-check">
    The share pays $1. You made $0.36 on \$0.64 risked.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Wrong" icon="circle-xmark">
    The share pays nothing. You lost the \$0.64.
  </Card>
</CardGroup>

You do not have to hold to resolution. Shares trade continuously, so if your
market moves from 0.64 to 0.80 you can sell and take the difference without
waiting to find out who was right.

## Why yes and no prices add to \$1

A yes share and a no share together are guaranteed to pay exactly \$1, because one
of them wins. That is what links the two prices: yes at 0.64 implies no at 0.36.

It also enables something that looks strange at first. If someone wants to buy yes
at 0.64 and someone else wants to buy no at 0.36, no existing shares need to change
hands at all. Their \$1 combined mints a fresh pair of shares, one to each of them.
Aura's matcher does this automatically, which means a market can have real
liquidity on both sides without anyone holding inventory first.

This is why every market has **two** order books rather than one, and why the API
returns `yes` and `no` books separately. See
[How trading works](/markets/trading).

## The lifecycle

<Steps>
  <Step title="Someone proposes it">
    A staker writes the question, the resolution rules, and the source that will
    settle it. Proposing requires stake, which is what makes spam expensive. See
    [Create a market](/markets/creating-markets).
  </Step>

  <Step title="Governance votes on it">
    Stakers vote on whether the proposal should become a real market. Accepted
    proposals get a contract deployed for them. See
    [Proposal voting](/governance/proposal-voting).
  </Step>

  <Step title="It trades">
    The order books open. Anyone can buy or sell either side. Every fill pays a
    2.5% fee that funds the [reward programs](/programs/overview).
  </Step>

  <Step title="Someone proposes the outcome">
    After the event happens, anyone can submit the outcome with a 100 USDT bond.
    If nobody disputes it within 24 hours, it stands.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Or it gets disputed">
    A challenger posts their own bond, and staked \$AURA holders settle it by
    commit-and-reveal vote. See
    [Resolution and disputes](/markets/resolution-and-disputes).
  </Step>

  <Step title="Winners claim">
    Once the outcome is final, winning shares are redeemable for \$1 each. Creator
    fees, referral fees, and voter rewards pay out automatically at the same time.
  </Step>
</Steps>

## What makes a market good

The single biggest determinant of whether a market works is whether its rules can
be argued with.

<AccordionGroup>
  <Accordion title="A bad market" icon="circle-xmark">
    "Will AI be a big deal in 2026?"

    There is no definition of "big deal" and no source that settles it. This ends
    in a dispute no matter who proposes the outcome, and the vote becomes a
    referendum on interpretation rather than fact.
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="A good market" icon="circle-check">
    "Will ALPH's closing price on CoinGecko on December 31, 2026 at 23:59 UTC be
    above \$5.00?"

    One source, one timestamp, one threshold. There is exactly one right answer
    and anyone can check it.
  </Accordion>
</AccordionGroup>

That difference is why [creating markets](/markets/creating-markets) spends most
of its length on writing rules rather than on the mechanics of submitting them.

## Where to go next

<CardGroup cols={2}>
  <Card title="Trade markets" icon="chart-candlestick" href="/markets/trading">
    Order types, the dual book, fills, and fees.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Create a market" icon="pen-to-square" href="/markets/creating-markets">
    Write a proposal that passes and resolves cleanly.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Resolution and disputes" icon="scale-balanced" href="/markets/resolution-and-disputes">
    How outcomes get settled and challenged.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Earn on Aura" icon="gift" href="/programs/overview">
    The four reward programs and who each is for.
  </Card>
</CardGroup>