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An Aura market is a question with a deadline and two sides. You buy shares in the outcome you think is right, and if you are right, each share pays out $1. Everything else on this page is detail hanging off that sentence.

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Shares, prices, and probability

A market on “Will ALPH close above 5onDecember31?"hastwosharetypes,yesandno.Exactlyoneofthemwillbeworth5 on December 31?" has two share types, yes and no. Exactly one of them will be worth 1 when the market resolves. The other will be worth nothing. Because the winning share pays 1,itspriceisaprobability.Ayessharetradingat1, its price is a probability. A yes share trading at 0.64 means the market collectively thinks there is a 64% chance.

Buy at 0.64

You pay $0.64 for a yes share.

Right

The share pays 1.Youmade1. You made 0.36 on $0.64 risked.

Wrong

The share pays nothing. You lost the $0.64.
You do not have to hold to resolution. Shares trade continuously, so if your market moves from 0.64 to 0.80 you can sell and take the difference without waiting to find out who was right.

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Why yes and no prices add to $1

A yes share and a no share together are guaranteed to pay exactly $1, because one of them wins. That is what links the two prices: yes at 0.64 implies no at 0.36. It also enables something that looks strange at first. If someone wants to buy yes at 0.64 and someone else wants to buy no at 0.36, no existing shares need to change hands at all. Their $1 combined mints a fresh pair of shares, one to each of them. Aura’s matcher does this automatically, which means a market can have real liquidity on both sides without anyone holding inventory first. This is why every market has two order books rather than one, and why the API returns yes and no books separately. See How trading works.

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The lifecycle

1

Someone proposes it

A staker writes the question, the resolution rules, and the source that will settle it. Proposing requires stake, which is what makes spam expensive. See Create a market.
2

Governance votes on it

Stakers vote on whether the proposal should become a real market. Accepted proposals get a contract deployed for them. See Proposal voting.
3

It trades

The order books open. Anyone can buy or sell either side. Every fill pays a 2.5% fee that funds the reward programs.
4

Someone proposes the outcome

After the event happens, anyone can submit the outcome with a 100 USDT bond. If nobody disputes it within 24 hours, it stands.
5

Or it gets disputed

A challenger posts their own bond, and staked $AURA holders settle it by commit-and-reveal vote. See Resolution and disputes.
6

Winners claim

Once the outcome is final, winning shares are redeemable for $1 each. Creator fees, referral fees, and voter rewards pay out automatically at the same time.

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What makes a market good

The single biggest determinant of whether a market works is whether its rules can be argued with.
“Will AI be a big deal in 2026?”There is no definition of “big deal” and no source that settles it. This ends in a dispute no matter who proposes the outcome, and the vote becomes a referendum on interpretation rather than fact.
“Will ALPH’s closing price on CoinGecko on December 31, 2026 at 23:59 UTC be above $5.00?”One source, one timestamp, one threshold. There is exactly one right answer and anyone can check it.
That difference is why creating markets spends most of its length on writing rules rather than on the mechanics of submitting them.

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Where to go next

Trade markets

Order types, the dual book, fills, and fees.

Create a market

Write a proposal that passes and resolves cleanly.

Resolution and disputes

How outcomes get settled and challenged.

Earn on Aura

The four reward programs and who each is for.
Last modified on July 29, 2026