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Documentation Index

Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://aura-4ecab767.mintlify.app/llms.txt

Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

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Ideal binary market example

Question: Will the U.S. enter a recession in 2025? Resolution Date: December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM Resolution Rules: This market resolves YES if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announces a U.S. recession at any point in 2025 (announcement must occur by Dec 31, 2025), or if the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports two consecutive quarters with negative real GDP growth between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive). If neither condition is met, this market resolves NO. Advance estimates count toward resolution. Sources:

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Crafting great binary markets

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Ask a simple, direct question

  • Phrase clearly as a Yes/No question.
  • Include the event, indicator, and timeframe.
  • Avoid vague words like “soon,” “likely,” or “possible.”

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Provide precise resolution rules

  • Clearly define conditions for YES and NO outcomes.
  • Use objective, measurable criteria.

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Set a clear resolution date

  • Choose a date clearly after the expected resolution event.
  • Resolution dates should not exceed one year from proposal.

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List reliable sources separately

  • Provide official, direct links separately from rules.
  • Prefer governmental or authoritative institutions.
  • Users depend on these to verify outcomes.

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Use a relevant market image

  • A great image improves engagement.
  • Choose topic-related, publicly hosted images ≤ 500 KB.
Quick check — if someone unfamiliar with the topic clearly understands your market, it’s ready for submission.